Recommendations in past issues
In the 1980s
U.S Automobile Stocks (April 30, 1982)
"I consider the automobile industry to be today in a similar position to the aerospace industry in 1974. The upside potential for auto stocks is tremendous."
The Bond Market (May 12, 1984)
"The purchase of bonds is strongly recommended… the strongest performance may be expected from long term zero coupon bonds"
On Turning Points - Or a Further Case for Bonds (July 6, 1984)
"In the last few years we have experienced a major turning point in the rate of inflation, but this turning point has not yet been recognized by the marketplace."
Hong Kong - Now Attractive (October 2, 1983, Hang Seng Index: 758)
"It is our believe that the Hong Kong market represents good value."
The Philippines - A Contrarian's Delight (March 9, 1985)
"In the Philippines we are faced today with the most depressed stock market of any country. San Miguel sells for 3 times earnings and at an 80% discount to asset value."
Time For Singapore (June 3, 1986, Strait Time Index: 563)
"I have been a regular visitor to Singapore for the last 13 years but never before have I encountered such an atmosphere of intense gloom and doom and total resignation. Many important stocks are down 80% from their highs in 1984. It is time to buy!"
Thailand Now Attractive (June 28, 1986)
"Many leading shares are selling at about five times earnings, yielding over 10% and about the same level as in 1975. Thai stocks are currently dirt cheap."
All Asian Stock Markets Should be Avoided! (October 17, 1987)
Latin America - The Last Bastion of Depressed Stocks (September 5, 1987)
"Investors should focus their attention towards Latin America where asset values and stock prices are very depressed."
Argentina - A Treasure Among Depressed Markets (December 3, 1988)
"Argentine real and financial assets are now unbelievably cheap!"
No Joy in the Land of the Rising Sun (December 15, 1989)
"Sell Japanese stocks and buy long term puts on the Nikkei Index."
IN THE 1990S
Latin America: Shining in the Nineties? (June 15, 1990)
"A window of opportunity for immediate substantial capital gains exists now."
Shanghai (April 18, 1990)
"I would not be surprised if within 10 years the market capitalization of Shanghai exceeds that of Hong Kong."
Russia and the Economics of Inflation (February 19, 1994)
"Hyperinflation periods provide the most unusual buying opportunities. Russian financial assets are extremely depressed!"
The Hong Kong Conundrum (October 21, 1996)
"Local living costs have become prohibitively expensive. Its trade surplus will deteriorate and property prices will tumble."
The Rise and Fall of Great Cities (June 16, 1997)
"At present, real estate prices in Hong Kong are still eight to ten times higher than prices in Beijing and Shanghai. But what about in ten years time? I believe that in the next ten to twenty years we are going to see mind boggling changes in terms of new centers of wealth."
Were you Born before or after 1997 (August 13, 1997)
"We have little doubt that this mania in red chip stocks will come to a bitter end, since most red chip stocks are almost identical in nature to the companies which went public during England's famous South Sea Bubble in 1720."
The Asian Stock Market Crash and After (November 9, 1998)
"I suggest that investors who are prepared to invest for the longer term should consider acquiring Asian equities."
Inflation, Deflation and Financial Manias (June 15, 1999)
"Wealthy individuals who have made their fortunes in high technology industries are and have been for quite some time bewildered and puzzled by their companies' current stock market valuations!"
THE NEW MILLENNIUM
Reflections on the Turn of the Millennium (January 31, 2000)
"I find it difficult to justify the valuation divergence between the 'new era' companies and the rest of the market."
Do You Sincerely Want to be Rich? (February 29, 2000)
"In due course, some fund managers will shift their assets from the NASDAQ, selling for around 200 times earnings, to 'old economy' companies selling for less than 10 times earnings."
Has History Become Useless as a Guide? (March 31, 2001)
"I feel quite confident that the whole economy will go through a period of profit deflation."
Has the Global High Tech Bubble Burst?
"The system of free competition is rather a peculiar one. Its mechanism is one of fooling entrepreneurs. It requires the pursuit of maximum profit in order to function, but it destroys profits when they are pursued by a larger and larger number of people….weakness in the NASDAQ would be positive for "value" stocks, which suffered because of the superb erformance of tech stocks and, therefore, attracted all the money, which recently flowed into equity mutual fund."
The Coming Vindication of Value Investors (May 26, 2000)
"It is conceivable that in future value stocks do indeed go up while the TMT sector declines."
I Know that I Don't Know (June 26, 2000)
"I believe that a period of very disappointing profits lies dead ahead."
Fattening the Bull for Slaughter (August 28, 2000)
"I believe that corporate earnings will be the catalyst that will bring about sharply lower stock prices."
The "New Economy" and its Impact on You (December 18, 2000)
"But what this repeated easing by central bankers, which is designed to combat the threat of a recession or deflation, actually does is to reinforce the deflationary trend, because it allows the boom in the object of speculation to continue for far longer than would normally be the case."
The Darkening Outlook for Corporate Profits (March 14, 2001)
"Thus we may be in a vicious cycle where the acceleration principle and the Multiplier interact to produce a cumulative deflationary spiral… In addition it's not unreasonable to assume that the days of America's high tech hegemony are numbered, and that both India and China will become fierce competitors in the electronics and software industry.
Increased Recession Risks! (August 8, 2006)
“There is a bubble in equities, but unlike in the late 1990s, which was a rating (PE) bubble, this one is an earnings (E) bubble. Higher interest rates are deadly to a PE bubble. But what will pop the E bubble are signs of growth and earnings’ downgrades. Those downgrades seem to be now looming.”
Will the US Become a Banana Republic? (December 10, 2006)
“The polarisation of wealth in the US means that the typical household in the US is vulnerable, whereas the type of people who make the Forbes list of the 400 wealthiest Americans will continue to thrive.”
Resistant Virus Causes Ugly Credit Infection! (August 24, 2007)
“And so, if leverage drove asset markets higher after 2003, and especially in 2006 and up until recently, it is inevitable that a slowing down in the rate of leverage growth will make it impossible for all asset markets to continue to rise at the same time, as has been the case since 2002. Moreover, if, as I believe, a process of de-leveraging is set in motion, it will exacerbate the decline in asset prices.”
The Great Unwinding of Economic and Financial Excesses (June 1, 2008)
“Governments and their agencies around the world — not just in the US — have created asset bubbles by keeping interest rates artificially low and through lax regulatory oversight, which has encouraged the purchase of all sorts of assets with high leverage. Inflated asset markets are making it expensive and difficult for first-time buyers to acquire assets without high leverage.”
Where is the Light at the End of this Tunnel? (February 25, 2009)
“I sense that a powerful move in equity markets is about to get under way, and by the time our readers receive this report it may already have occurred.
We have had a relatively tight trading range over the last three months and this is likely to lead to a sharp breakout move.”
When Assets Become Cash! (October 28, 2009)
“I have tried to demonstrate that there is a risk in holding cash in an environment of consumer and/or asset price inflation, which usually occurs when governments want to silently expropriate the working and middle class by creating fiscal deficits and inflating the quantity of money and credit. The practice is endemic to banana republics and declining empires.”
The Great Reflation (March 3, 2010)
“The unprecedented attempts underway to reflate the economy open a new chapter in financial experimentation, one that creates great uncertainty and risk for everyone, but also opportunity.”
Dictatorship of the Professoriate (September 29, 2011)
“Things were never perfect in the past, but I would argue that the current level and scope of corruption in the U.S. society is unprecedented and is a root cause of the decline of the United States....”
Capitalism, Government Interventions, and Loss of Freedom (October 29, 2012)
“Milton Friedman opined about the FED that, ‘any system which gives so much power and so much discretion to a few men, that mistakes — excusable or not — can have such far reaching effects is a bad system.’”
Forty Years in Asia August 1, 2013)
“I started working on Wall Street in 1970 for White Weld & Co., Inc., which sent me to Asia in 1973. In 1971, the entire US stock market capitalisation was just US$734 billion and the total global bond market had a value of US$776 billion.” (Daily trading volume on the NYSE averaged about 11 million shares.)